Mizuho's direct view is that Circle's U.S. national trust bank approval is positive, but not enough to change the basic risk picture. The firm kept a neutral rating on Circle, pointing to slower USDC momentum, pressure on transaction and reserve-related revenue, and tougher competition from emerging alliance-backed stablecoins such as Open USD.
| Primary source | Jinse Finance |
|---|---|
| Reported at | 2026-07-13T19:52:33.000Z |
| Topic | SOL |
| Evidence limit | Reported facts are separated from interpretation; current prices and platform terms require independent verification. |
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Mizuho said Circle's final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank is a favorable step, but not a reason to ignore the company's operating pressures.
The event matters because a bank approval can improve market confidence, but Mizuho's analysis separates regulatory progress from business fundamentals. In its view, approval alone does not solve USDC's growth slowdown or the broader competitive pressure in stablecoins.
Why Mizuho Stayed Neutral
Mizuho maintained a neutral rating on Circle because it believes the market reaction to the approval may be too optimistic. The supplied brief frames the approval as helpful, but not decisive enough to change the fundamental outlook.
The main issue is that USDC circulation has reportedly declined by about $7 billion since March to about $74 billion. If that trend persists, it may weigh on Circle's transaction revenue and reserve income, which are both linked to the scale and activity of USDC usage.
USDC Growth Signal
The most decision-useful metric in the brief is not the approval itself, but the reported movement in USDC circulating market value. A decline from earlier levels suggests that adoption momentum may be slower than investors expected.
For readers tracking USDC, the practical question is whether the approval helps stabilize or rebuild circulation over time. The brief does not provide forward guidance, user-growth data, redemption data, or revenue figures, so the evidence supports caution rather than a strong directional conclusion.
Competition Risk
Mizuho also pointed to Open USD, a stablecoin backed by an alliance that includes Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and more than 140 financial and technology companies. The brief says this product is compliant with the GENIUS Act and may intensify competition.
The competitive concern is not only one new stablecoin. Mizuho's broader point is that more alliance-backed stablecoins could make the sector more homogeneous, which may make it harder for Circle to preserve a durable advantage.
Practical Checks for Readers
Before treating this approval as a bullish standalone signal, readers should check whether USDC circulation resumes growth, whether Circle can defend transaction activity, and whether reserve-related economics remain resilient as competition expands.
Readers should also separate regulatory status from market share. A stronger regulatory position can matter, but the supplied event does not show that it has already improved USDC demand, revenue, or competitive positioning.
Risk Disclosure and OKX Context
This article is informational only and does not provide financial advice. Stablecoin issuers, exchange tokens, and related crypto assets can be affected by regulation, liquidity conditions, market confidence, interest-rate sensitivity, and competitive product launches.
For readers who actively monitor crypto market infrastructure, OKX can be used as one venue to follow market data and stablecoin pairs. If you choose to explore OKX, use the provided campaign link and code only after doing your own checks: OKX official destination, code 7nfg8123.
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Review OKXAffiliate link · Availability varies by region · No guaranteed outcomeQuestions readers ask
Did Mizuho say Circle's bank approval is negative?
No. Mizuho described the OCC approval as a positive development, but said it does not solve Circle's core challenges around USDC growth and stablecoin competition.
What is the main USDC concern in the brief?
The main concern is slowing momentum. The brief says USDC circulating market value has decreased by about $7 billion since March to about $74 billion.
Why could lower USDC circulation matter for Circle?
Lower circulation may pressure Circle's transaction revenue and reserve income because both can depend on the size and activity of USDC in circulation.
What role does Open USD play in this analysis?
Mizuho cited Open USD as a competitive pressure because it is backed by a large alliance including Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and more than 140 financial and technology companies.
Does this event prove that Circle will lose market share?
No. The supplied brief identifies risks and recent USDC circulation pressure, but it does not prove future market-share outcomes.
Is this article recommending a trade?
No. This article is for information and risk context only. It does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any asset.